On Virginia Politics Currently
 Heck, I'm the VCAP challenger gone blogging! I should have more to say!
Fact of the matter is that most of what you see nowadays is idle speculation. This is why I kinda like seeing Not Larry Sabato go fishing with his/her scenarios - and the more outlandish they are the better.
Will Potts be a factor? Sure. Who is he hurting more? Both parties I would take it, though if Potts were to drop out midway through the race, I have no question in my mind they (meaning Potts sympathizers) will vote for a reinvented Tim Kaine.
Do the debates matter? Of course they do, but don't expect Kilgore to trip up, and don't expect Kaine to get off easy on his stewardship of Richmond. And don't expect Potts to flirt with anything more than 10% of the vote. Potts isn't even in the big tent, not even in the concession stands. He's in the parking lot scalping tickets to the real thing, and voters will treat him accordingly.
Should Kilgore be concerned about social conservatives in his base. Yes -- and Bolling and McDonnell will not be enough to pull them along. Of course, any sharpening of the social conservative rhetoric will only play into Kaine's hands if we're not careful.
Immigration? A dud, not to mention a slightly racist campaign issue. Unless the Governor of Virginia is going to close the borders, this is a federal issue of federal concern. States can only treat the symptoms of a cure that can only be found in Washington's immigration policy.
Transportation? We all know what needs to be done... but who in Richmond has the guts to say it?
Taxes? Bills in the drawer? Until we have a serious discussion about what precisely we want government to do, then expect taxes to rise; moreso under Kaine, less under Kilgore.
State of RPV? Couldn't be happier to the outside world. On the inside, well... couldn't be happier... this despite the ongoing rift between moderates and conservatives. If there's one thing that unites us, it's that we aren't Democrats!
State of DPVA? Dismal, defensive, and in serious need of an idea that hasn't been co-opted by moderate Republicans.
Warner vs. Allen in '06? Won't happen.
Warner vs. Allen '08? Won't happen.
Will Senator Allen win the GOP nod? Without hesitating, name one other GOP presidential hopeful with nationwide appeal who can beat Allen right now in a drop. My point precisely.
Can Warner win the Democratic nod? If the Dems are smart, they'll look at his record (or more accurately, the deplorable lack thereof) in Virginia and find greener pastures.
How many seats willl the GOP pick up this year? Four. Will it be enough to prevent a tax hike in 2006? Probably not.
Will the 2005 elections be the nastiest in recent memory? Not if left to Virginians, but when outsiders get involved, we'll run out of mud and start throwing stones by the end. I hope it doesn't get that way, but if you worked on the ground during the presidential election in 2004, you have that gut feeling it could. . .
That's all I have for the moment. When the spirit moves me, I'll feel free to chime in, but what you have right now is something pretty static. The summer doldrums for political types, and much posturing.
It'll change by September for certain, but the only question is whether the tone will change as well.
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James Atticus Bowden 
3 Comments:
Immigration will be spun as racist by the Liberals, especially the MSM, but there are things we can do with a clean heart that will resound with the electorate.
In addition to asking our Congressional delegation to fix Medicaid (need to have the answer), Virginia needs to face the problem with expanded Health Savings accounts, etc.
Nice to be linked to your blog. Good job.
Just as you and I are Virginians, we are also Americans. We have a vested interest in making sure America stays strong. Sometimes this means the states have to tackle issues the feds won't, but only with the constitutional powers granted us. Discouraging illegal immigration is a legitimate action.
Finally, I would offer say that Kilgore probably doesn't have as much to fear about the social conservative base as we think. A friend of mine calls pro-lifers sheeple, and for good reason. They tend to be as beholden to the GOP as African Americans are to the Dems. I wish this wasn't the case, because then our votes would be fought for with more vigor, but it is.
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